Roman Trunov, the General Director (CEO) of Printing House “Higher School”, the largest country’s printing and publishing company, talks about the problems, current state and prospects of the country’s book printing, the true rationales behind the exisiting difficulties of the industry and its development factors.
VIDEO [Russian; Translation Support]
Coherent exposition of the speech
1. Organizational Structure. Roman Trunov begins by clarifying the status of the organization, emphasizing that it is not, in fact, a classical publishing house but rather a management structure overseeing printing assets. The expert points to a transformation of the business model following the consolidation of production facilities, which shifted the focus toward industrial printing. The speaker notes the presence of several production sites covering a broad range of printing products. Additionally, Roman highlights diversification through the launch of digital printing and new business lines. This indicates an attempt to adapt to a changing demand structure.
2. Market Dynamics. The speaker relies on industry statistics, stressing that short-term positive signals can be misleading, and draws attention to the long-term trend since 2008, where output has declined by more than 50%. Mr. Trunov argues that localized growth in certain periods is more of a corrective movement than evidence of market recovery. The expert cites force majeure factors that distorted the statistics, further reducing the reliability of optimistic assessments. As a result, he concludes that the downturn is structural rather than cyclical.
3. Format Competition. A key thesis of the presentation is the assertion of the systemic loss of competitiveness of printed books. Roman Trunov explicitly states that the print format is losing to electronic books in terms of price and accessibility. Moreover, the speaker broadens the competitive landscape to include cross-media competition with audio and video content. The expert supports this claim with observations of shifting consumer behavior, especially among children. This forms a long-term negative trend for the entire industry.
4. Ongoing Decline. Analyzing recent data, Mr. Trunov identifies a continued decline in volumes even in the most recent periods. The speaker emphasizes that the exact percentage of decline is secondary compared to the fact of the downward trajectory itself. Roman Trunov expresses skepticism about any improvement in the short term and interprets the decline in interest in reading as a persistent trend rather than a temporary deviation. This reinforces a pessimistic outlook for the industry.
5. Market Consolidation. A separate part of the presentation is devoted to changes in the competitive structure of the market. Roman Trunov notes the consolidation of players through acquisitions of production assets and then suggests that vertical integration will lead to the redistribution of orders within large holdings. According to the expert, this will increase pressure on independent market participants. He identifies intensified price dumping amid rising costs as a key consequence.
6. Strategic Uncertainty. The speaker introduces uncertainty through potential risk events. Roman Trunov points to the privatization of major players as a source of strategic risk. The expert emphasizes the lack of clarity regarding the actions of new owners. Additionally, the he notes the possibility of similar changes within his own organization. This creates an unstable institutional environment for investment decision-making.
7. Operational Constraints. Mr. Trunov devotes significant attention to operational production issues. The speaker identifies labor shortages and rising wage costs as systemic constraints. Roman Trunov also highlights extended delivery times and reduced availability of materials and spare parts. The expert emphasizes increasing logistical complexity and declining quality of supplied resources. This directly affects cost structures and production stability.
8. Technological Risks. Technological risks are highlighted as a separate critical factor. Roman Trunov draws attention to dependence on high-tech imported equipment and then provides examples of service limitations and spare parts shortages, which threaten production continuity. The expert notes partial substitution with Chinese alternatives, acknowledging their lower quality. This indicates a degradation of the industry’s technological level.
9. Industry Outlook. In the concluding part of the presentation, Roman Trunov formulates an overall outlook. The speaker asserts that if current constraints persist, the printing market will continue to contract and degrade technologically. The professional emphasizes the combination of rising costs and price pressure as potentially critical. In his view, this could lead to serious negative consequences for the industry. His final conclusion is that adaptation is necessary, with survival depending on how effectively participants can adjust to the new conditions.